WEBVTT
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we're giving this timeshare complex and just the proportion of
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those who visit and the proportion of those who ends
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up making a purchase. 20% of the people purchasing
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Earth Sorry, 20% of the people who visit she
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was a day visit 50%. She's a one night
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and the last 30% are two night visits were also
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given that the probability that somebody purchases given that they
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did a day visit, it's 10% probably that they
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purchased, given that it was a one night visit
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is 30% and the probability that they purchased given there
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were two night visit is 20%. So we're supposed
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to find the probability at their day they visited during
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the day, given that they purchased probability that they
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stayed for one night, given that they purchased the
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probability that they were hello to night visitor, given
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that they purchased. Now, as you can probably
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guess, all three of these require based them to
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some degree. But in order to find out,
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we need our probability of purchase week, which we
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can compute using our log total probability. It's going
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to be probability day times, the probability of purchase
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during the day, plus the probability of one night
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. Tens of probability they purchased, given it was
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a one night visit, plus the probability of a
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two night visit times the probability they purchased, given
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it was a two night visit, we plug all
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this into a calculator. You'll get our total probability
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that the purchase, which ends up being 0.23 All
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right, now, let's start using some base down
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, so this will be the probability. But the
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day purchased are sorry probability that they visited during the
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day, times the probability they purchased skin, that
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they were a day visitor, all divided by the
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probability of purchase, which is 0.20 time, 0.10
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all over 0.23 And this comes out too. 0.0
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87 All right, we're gonna do the same thing
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here. Next up seems last. All right.
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Uh, I'm starting to think I did not plan
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spacing out all these fractions well enough. But whatever
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will move on the probability of a one night purchases
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0.50 Multiply that by the purchase. Given that there
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were one night visitor and then we divide that by
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the probability of purchase. And this comes out to
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0.652 All right, I'm gonna preemptively move everything up
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because I feel like Oops. Ah, yeah,
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Because I feel like I did not plan this through
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. Right. There we go. Same old,
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same old. Same setup. It's can be 0.30
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temp, 0.20 all divided by 0.23 This ends up
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being 0.261 and there you have it.