National Jointed Goatgrass Research Program

 

Progress Report-2001

FINAL REPORT

 

TITLE: Converting the Bioeconomic Model To a User Friendly Computer Program

 

PERSONNEL:  Bruce D. Maxwell

 

TIME LINE OF PROJECT: Initiation date:   Jan. 15, 1998  

                                                Initial Termination date: March 31, 2001

 

ORIGINAL HYPOTHESIS:

We can improve the usefulness of the jointed goatgrass bioeconomic model to researchers by making most recent versions available as an interactive computer program that is accessed on the world-wide-web.

 

OBJECTIVES:

Our goal was to provide a simple way to observe the relevance of specific biological and ecological information on the population dynamics of jointed goatgrass and its subsequent impact on winter wheat and economic returns.  In order to accomplish this, we intended to develop a user-friendly version of the jointed goatgrass bioeconomic computer model that allowed researchers to efficiently develop hypotheses and prioritize future research by:

a)      providing the ability to edit all parameter values,

b)      using the variance statistics to determine the variability in outcomes,

c)      providing tables and graphic output that allowed easy assessment of responses to parameter manipulation, different weather years, or different cropping systems,

d)      providing the ability to conduct sensitivity analysis with a choice of dependent variables.

In addition, our objective was to work closely with the computer programmers to retain a vision of having this software evolve toward a future more management oriented decision aid that would contain all the same information, but with far less access to the parameter values.

 

PROGRESS AND CONCLUSIONS:                                                         

The 1998 objectives associated with constructing the World-Wide-Web version of the jointed goatgrass bioeconomic model was completed June 1, 1999 and released for review by the scientists that have contributed data. See: http://gemini.oscs.montana.edu/~jgg/

We have completed a second phase of analysis of the multi-state threshold experiment data to create the option in the program to group states data to produce a more accurate set of parameter values and their error for portions of the region not adjacent to research sites.  The final version of the model was presented at the Annual Review of Projects meeting on March 11, 2001 at Coeur D’Alene, ID.  We have assembled some information published on jointed goatgrass response to cropping systems so that it could be incorporated into a future model if funding can be procured.  The shift in emphasis of the Jointed Goatgrass Initiative did not allow for development of the bioeconomic model to a decision aid for managers.  As it stands it is a good tool for generally assessing the influence of jointed goatgrass population dynamics on economic outcomes in continuous winter wheat production.

 

TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER:

The debugged and compiled final version of the original Microsoft QuickBasic bioeconomic model computer program was demonstrated and released at the WSWS meeting on March 8, 1998.  The Web-based version of the Jointed Goatgrass Bioeconomic Model was released to other jointed goatgrass researchers in October, 1998.  The first upgrade of the Web-based version of the model was released in September, 1999. The www-based model was presented at Annual Review of Projects meeting on March 12, 2000 at Tucson, AZ.  The final version of the model was presented at the Annual Review of Projects meeting on March 11, 2001 at Coeur D’Alene, ID.  The final version of the model can be accessed at: http://gemini.oscs.montana.edu/~jgg/

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