b'WHAT IS REALLY GOING TO HAPPEN AS A RESULT OF AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES AND NEW MOBILITY?A LOOK INTO THE YEAR 2050 couldnt be filled because there were morefewer cars mean less traffic. It is predictedthe cities have eliminated single-occupant jobs than employees. that by 2040, even with lower car ownership,vehicles from the downtown areas, transit By Wes Guckert traffic will become dramatically worse andorganizations now potentially see ridership SHOPPING, BUYING STUFFmore congested. levelstheyhavenotseenindecades. OFFLINE, REMEMBER THAT? Busesinthesuburbs,however,are As you may recall, it was in the late 20thDRIVING IN DOWNTOWN, WILL YOUcanceled and are not at all profitable, even DavidLevinsonwroteabookthatwasTHE WORK WEEK OF THEcould be situations whereby odd numbercentury when physically traveling to a storeBE ABLE TO DO SUCH A THING? with autonomous vehicles.recently published that had a chapter tiedFUTUREBUT LOOKING BACK license plates enter the city on a Tuesday,usedtobethenormforeverything.TheIn the early 2030s, government and citiesTOLL ROADS AND to what happened to traffic and predictingLevinsonpointedoutthatgreat- and even number license plates enter theSearscatalogmorphedintotheinternetwill begin to ban cars in the core areas orCONGESTION PRICINGwhat could be during the 100th anniversarygrandparents of the WWII era worked sixcity on a Wednesday, etc. with Amazon.com. Acquiring things now iswill put congestion-management programs of the Interstate Highway Act in the Uniteddays a week, only taking off on Sunday froma combination of the occasional, physicalintoplay.ItispossiblethatconnectedItisclearthatcongestionpricingwillbe States, dateline: June 2056. the time they were teenagers. Around theTHE AMERICAN DREAM.trip to the store, and now, most goods getvehiclesandconnectedandautonomousmandatory as a way to reduce the amount turn into the 21st century, some companiesIS IT STILL ALIVE? delivered.Cashstrappedroadagenciesvehicles(CAVs)willresultintrafficbeingoftraffic.Intheyear2018,theaverage Gobacktotheyear2018,andinthestartedgrantingeveryotherFridayoff,Ifindeedthecentralbusinessdistrictlook favorably on sponsored roads as a waycontrolled and conducted invisibly throughspeed in downtown New York City business previous five years, it has been quoted thatknownasthe5/4schedule.The3-daycrashes,willthecrashundercuttofindmaintenancedollars.Sponsoringa radio spectrum rather than with coloreddistrictislessthan5MPH.Thecostof autonomous driving went from weekend was celebrated as the norm. Asresidentialconstructioninthesuburbs,roadsstartedaroundthetimeofY2K.lights designed for the human drivers eyes.congestionanddelaysisenormous,and n May be possible. time went on, many firms went to a 9 orand will people move back to the centerDecentralized manufacturing, including 3DDiscreetin-groundsensorsmaydetectthere needs to be a solution. That solution n Definitely possible. 10hourday,allowingpersonneltoworkcity and colonize vacant and reconfiguredon-demand printing of goods, will begin toand guide pedestrians safely across busywill be mileage fees (VMT taxes) instead of n Inevitable. at home or to spend extra time with theirofficebuildings?Inthesuburbs,thereplace long-distance shipping, which canintersections. gasoline taxes, and it has become apparent n How did anyone think this wasntfamily. The internet and laptop computerstraditional two and three-car garage couldnow be made locally. The Teamsters union,that looking for a parking place in a central inevitable? put a wedge between the strict separationbetransformedintoaworkshop,livingwhich used to have a physical person insideGAS STATIONS ANDbusiness district is one of the major items David Levinson indicates that 40 years intoof home and work. Over the next 50 years,space, or even a small store. atruck,arenowcontrollingthetrucksWAITING FOR THE BUS thatcausescongestioninthecity.Ifwe the future, largely unnoticed by the nakedit became easier and easier to spend moreremotely, much like drones that are flying inItreallydoesnotmatterwhetheryoueliminate a substantial amount of parking eye,newtransportpatternsaretakingtime working at home than in the office.YOUR CAREER IN THE YEAR 2050 the war-torn Middle East are controlled by abelieve in global warming, climate change,and impose congestion fees, it is hoped that route. Some of my 2018-2019 presentationsCollaboration started to become the onlyIn the 1950s through the first 25 years ofpilot in Central Texas. orgreenhousegases.Liquidpetroleumcongestion in the Central Business Districts are started by the fact that we had enteredreasonwhyworkersmayneedtospendthe 21st century, parents and grandparentsandcarsthatburngasolineforenergycan be controlled. anewtransportationrevolution.Manytime in the office with other employees.stayed in the same industry, maybe evenOWNING AN AUTOMOBILE,result in unwanted byproducts. By 2050,Congestion is not going to go away anytime transport agencies are currently in denialthe same firm, from high school or collegeWHO ME? gasoline-poweredvehicleshavelargelysoon, but there is hope within the next 30 to or acting reactively in the year 2018 andAt one point in time, the office buildings anduntil retirement age. It is possible that, byIn the next 40 years, it will likely be possiblebeen removed from the road. Autonomous40 years that it can be managed as a result 2019. There clearly have been predictionsskyscrapers in the central business districttheyear2050,muchofthepopulationfor most city dwellers to sell their cars andbusesthatarepoweredbyrenewableof new technology and changes in the way thatTransportationNetworkCompanieswere the breathing heart and soul of a city.doesnt enter the regular workforce untilnotreplacethem.Thetaxi,theultimateenergyhavelowercosts,andbecausewe work and shop.n(TNCs) are actually avatars for the future ofIt has been discovered that it is no longerthey are in their late 20s and many retireridesharing vehicle, was transformed from autonomous vehicles (AVs). As a result, AVsnecessary to have central office space, andin their 50s or 60s. Many employees failaniche-modetomainstream.Insteadof could play a role in improving capacity onmany office buildings may be torn down orto stay with a single company throughouthaving the high cost of owning a car, but freeways and interstates, but TNCs and AVsadapted into living space, and others remaintheir working career, but it continues toa high cost per trip, now there is a lowerWes Guckert, PTP, is President & CEO of The Traffic Group, a leading see-through. As a result, if working at homeService-Disabled Veteran-Owned Small Business traffic engineering could have a disastrous effect on centralbecomesmuchmorecommon,trafficinbecome very expensive for a company tocostpertrip,makingpeoplethinktwiceandtransportationplanningfirmservingclientsnationallyand business districts in the future.and of itself may be reduced dramaticallyhire or train a new employee. Fortunately,and use cars less. However, because TNCsinternationally. He is also a Fellow of ITE and Instructor at Harvard during peak commuting hours. In fact, thereintheyear2018,intheUnitedStates,have become so popular and transit useUniversity.therewere7millionvacantjobsthatcontinues to decline, it is unclear whether 23 24'